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| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un poses with representatives of the Korean Children's Union under North Korea's ruling Workers' Party in Pyongyang, Sunday, in this photo released by the North's official state news agency, Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap |
By Kang Seung-woo
The security situation on the Korean Peninsula is likely to return to the 2017 days of "fire and fury" when the United States and North Korea came closer to war or get even worse as Pyongyang is set to take aggressive actions against South Korea by expanding its nuclear arsenal, according to a Seoul-based think tank.
During a plenary meeting of the ruling Workers' Party, Dec. 31, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un identified South Korea as its "undoubted enemy" and vowed to mass-produce tactical nuclear weapons and exponentially increase its nuclear warheads.
"From the beginning of the New Year, North Korea is highly anticipated to show off a mass production of tactical nuclear weapons and their deployment, meaning that it is likely to show a customized response to South Korea in an offensive manner," the institute said.
The report added that rather than slamming the U.S., North Korea seems to focus on antagonizing South Korea, which has taken a tough stance on its northern neighbor since President Yoon Suk-yeol took office in May 2022. In addition, Kim's remarks were a response to Seoul's efforts to beef up the South's military capabilities, including the termination of missile guidelines between South Korea and the U.S. in 2022, which paved the way for the South to develop its own ballistic missiles capable of reaching targets far beyond the peninsula.
During his speech, Kim also called for efforts to develop new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and put a spy satellite into orbit as early as possible in a bid to beef up its military capabilities "overwhelmingly."
The prediction came as North Korea ended last year with a record-breaking offensive of ballistic missile launches ― 38 launches. Additionally, the country is also believed to be fully prepared for a seventh nuclear test.
The report said a large number of envisaged combined military exercises between South Korea and the U.S. may cause more instances of belligerent responses from the North, given that it denounced them as a rehearsal for invasion.
Amid North Korea's intensifying threats, South Korea and the U.S. plan to hold some 20 combined exercises in the first half of next year and what is drawing attention is the possible resumption of the Foal Eagle field training. The Foal Eagle field training drill had been annually carried out together with the Key Resolve exercise until 2018. The Key Resolve is a simulation-driven, combined command-post exercise, while Foal Eagle is a field training drill.
Along with the Foal Eagle and the Key Resolve, the two countries' Marine Corps plan to hold the Ssangyong (double dragon) exercise, another drill that North Korea will likely respond strongly to and take as a provocation.
In addition, North Korea plans to complete launching a reconnaissance satellite by April and the Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima, Japan is slated for May, so provocative military actions from the North are likely, the institute said.
In the second half of the year, is July 27, which is known in North Korea as "Victory Day" or the day the armistice was signed. The Ulchi Freedom Shield combined exercise in August and North Korea's foundation day in September may additionally lead to provocations from the North, it added.
"A crucial moment on the peninsula would come when a trilateral exercise between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan overlaps with a combined exercise between China and Russia and a provocation from North Korea," it said.
According to the report, North Korea's aggressive provocations in September and October and the intrusion of North Korean drones into South Korea in December occurred when the South Korea-U.S. and China-Russia exercises were taking place.
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