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| Chinese President Xi Jinping waves as he arrives for the opening session of the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress in Beijing, Sunday. AFP-Yonhap |
China likely to increase support for North Korea
By Kang Seung-woo
Chinese President Xi Jinping's precedent-defying third team in power, which will be confirmed during the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) week-long Congress that kicked off on Sunday, is casting a shadow over the Korean Peninsula.
South Korea-China relations are already facing looming tensions, with Seoul in favor of U.S.-led value-based diplomacy against Beijing's assertiveness, according to diplomatic observers, Sunday.
In addition, the continued tenure of Xi as the leader of China is likely to put a damper on efforts directed toward resolving North Korea's nuclear issue, they added.
The national congress will end Oct. 22. Xi is widely expected to win a third five-year term there as the general secretary of the Chinese Community Party.
"In general, Xi's third term will not play a positive role in advancing South Korea-China ties at all," said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University.
Park said Xi's third term will likely see rising authoritarianism and assertive foreign policies. Thus, the United States will likely seek to bolster its alliance with its allies and like-minded liberal democracies against China, he said.
"Under the conditions of an intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China, there is little room for South Korea to maneuver," he added.
The U.S. is a staunch ally of South Korea, while China is its largest trading partner.
Chung Jae-hung, a research fellow at the Sejong Institute, said it would not be easy to predict whether Seoul-Beijing ties will be better than now after Xi is reappointed for a third term because the Yoon Suk-yeol administration has shown signs of moving closer to the U.S.' anti-China foreign policy, a shift from predecessor Moon Jae-in's "balanced diplomacy" approach amid the U.S.-Sino rivalry. For instance, South Korea is now participating in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), an economic initiative to counter China's influence in the region.
"When Xi's new term begins, the competition between the U.S. and China will further intensify and in that sense, there will be some challenges that will put Korea-China relations to the test in the future," Chung said.
"Be that as it may, we cannot depart from the U.S. side and suddenly take a neutral stance," Chung said.
The issue of North Korea's nuclear program is once again coming to the fore as it is fully prepared to conduct a seventh nuclear test, according to the South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities, with many raising calls for China to strengthen its role in resolving the nuclear problem because Beijing is North Korea's sole economic pipeline and diplomatic guardian.
However, experts are skeptical of China playing a role in denuclearizing North Korea.
"North Korea will be happy about Xi's third term because of the birth of another one-man dictatorship like itself. In that respect, their ties are likely to strengthen and China will be more supportive of North Korea, which will make it more difficult to stabilize the Korean Peninsula and denuclearize North Korea," Park said.
Recently, North Korea carried out multiple provocations by test-firing missiles and staging military drills near the inter-Korean border, but China remained quiet over them.
Park said that even if North Korea carries out a seventh nuclear test, China will not likely take issue with it.
"When North Korea broke its self-imposed moratorium on missile and nuclear tests in March by firing an intercontinental ballistic missile, China did not protest it and the stance will continue this time in the event of a nuclear test," he added.
Chung said China and South Korea remain far apart over how to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, meaning that it will not be easy to find momentum on the issue.
"As for the recent North Korean provocations, China's stance is that the U.S. should change its behavior toward North Korea, while the South Korean government is accusing the North of increasing tensions," he said.
In response to growing North Korean nuclear threats, there are some calls among South Koreans that Seoul should acquire its own nuclear weapons or reintroduce U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to the peninsula.
"If the matter further develops, China will take issue with it, creating more tensions between them," Chung said.
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