North Korea's ICBM launch ends in failure

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un walks around what Pyongyang says is a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile on a launcher at an undisclosed location in North Korea, March 24, in this photo distributed by the North Korean government. AP-Yonhap

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By Kang Seung-woo

North Korea continued its saber-rattling for the second day straight, Thursday, by firing at least six missiles, but its military show of force ended up being compromised after the launch of the country's largest and most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) failed while in flight.

The unsuccessful ICBM launch may cause further delays to the possible next nuclear test by the North, which is believed to have been fully prepared for it since May, as it is still short of putting the United States on high alert or gaining its attention, according to diplomatic observers.

According to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), North Korea launched what was presumed to be an ICBM from the Sunan area of Pyongyang at 7:40 a.m., then two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) from Kaechon in South Pyongan Province at 8:39 a.m. The JCS also said that it detected three SRBMs between 9:35 p.m. and 9:49 p.m. traveling toward the East Sea from Koksan County in North Hwanghae Province.

As for the ICBM, the JCS did not specify what type of missile North Korea had prepared, but it was presumed to be the Hwasong-17, which analysts say may be capable of carrying multiple warheads and traveling up to 15,000 kilometers, far enough to strike anywhere in the U.S. The missile was first unveiled in October 2020.

The ICBM flew about 760 kilometers at an apogee of around 1,920 kilometers and a top speed of Mach 15, but something seemed to have gone wrong following second-stage separation, the JCS added.

The alleged test-firing of a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile from an undisclosed location in North Korea, March 24, is seen in this photo distributed by the North Korean government. AP-Yonhap

According to Japanese authorities also, the ICBM was initially expected to fly over Japan, but its defense ministry later evaluated that the missile did not cross over the country and lost track of it, raising speculation of a possible missile failure.

North Korea has test-fired ICBMs on seven occasions this year, but two attempts ended up failures.

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On March 16, it launched a Hwasong-17 that failed immediately after launch. Although the country claimed to have successfully test-fired the missile on March 24, the South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities concluded that North Korea had in fact fired the Hwangsong-15, another ICBM that it had already test-launched in 2017, another one that is theoretically capable of reaching anywhere on the U.S. mainland.

"Given the stage separation, it must be an ICBM. However, it reached an apogee of only 2,000 kilometers, data similar to that of the Hwasong-12, so I think North Korea has failed in developing the Hwasong-17," said Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum. The Hwasong-12 missile is an intermediate-range ballistic missile that can strike the U.S. territory of Guam, a Pacific base for Washington's strategic assets that will be sent to the Korean Peninsula in times of crisis.

"As North Korea seeks to apply advanced devices to the Hwasong-17, it appears that it is struggling to develop the missile," Shin added.

As for the two SRBMs, they traveled some 330 kilometers at a maximum altitude of around 70 kilometers at a top speed of Mach 5.

The missile launches came one day after the Kim Jong-un regime launched more than 20 ballistic and other missiles, the most it has fired in a single day ever. In addition, one of them landed in South Korean territory for the first time since the 1950-53 Korean War. The South Korean military also responded by the firing of three air-to-surface missiles into the sea north of the inter-Korean maritime border.

There has been rampant speculation that North Korea's next nuclear test is imminent, and the South Korean and U.S. governments have been urging Pyongyang to refrain from military provocations and return to the negotiating table.

However, Shin said Thursday's failed launch may prevent the North Korean regime from detonating a nuclear device.

Two EA-18G Growlers participate in the Vigilant Storm exercise over Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, Wednesday. South Korea and the United States agreed, Thursday, to extend the exercise amid North Korea's continued provocations. Courtesy of ROK Air Force

"Ahead of a nuclear test, North Korea should prove its capability to strike the U.S. mainland in order to put the U.S. on alert over its nuclear arsenal. In that respect, the North's envisaged nuclear test may be postponed further," he said.

In fact, North Korea has test-fired ballistic missiles on 30 occasions this year, but the U.S. government has disregarded them, saying they do not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel or territory, or its allies.

"As many experts predict, North Korea is expected to stage a series of high-intensity provocations to ratchet up tensions to gain attention from the U.S. and the country will punctuate them with a nuclear test," Shin added.

Meanwhile, South Korea and the U.S. agreed, Thursday, to extend the ongoing Vigilant Storm, a combined air exercise in response to North Korea's continuing provocations.

Since Monday, the allies have been conducting joint training featuring 240 aircraft, including the F-35A and F-35B stealth jets, but they did not elaborate on when the exercise is to finish.