Moon's peace initiative destined to fail

gettyimagesbank

North Korea waits for result of South Korea's presidential election

By Kang Seung-woo

In his New Year speech on Jan. 3, President Moon Jae-in said he will pursue an "irreversible path to peace" on the Korean Peninsula until his term ends in May, with many believing that he referred to his drive to formally end the Korean War.

However, his ambitious pledge appears to have been dampened as North Korea has threatened to lift its moratorium on nuclear and inter-continental ballistic missile tests ― a pause that has served as both a feat in the South Korean leader's inter-Korean peace initiative and a motive for his end-of-war declaration push.

Last September, Moon proposed declaring an end to the 1950-53 Korean War at the United Nations. And since then, Seoul has promoted it as a catalyst for peace talks with Pyongyang. But the totalitarian state announced, Thursday, that it had decided to restart all temporally-suspended activities in light of what it called a U.S.' hostile policy.

The North Korean leader declared a halt to all nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests in April 2018, while engaging in talks with former U.S. President Donald Trump.

"President Moon will continue to reach out to North Korea, but any chance of concluding an end-of-war declaration or any progress in North-South relations is gone for his administration," U.S. Naval War College Professor Terence Roehrig said.

"North Korea has shown almost no interest in engaging Seoul and Washington and that will not change during Moon's remaining months in office."

Joseph DeTrani, a former special envoy for negotiations with North Korea, echoed Roehrig's view.

"With the recent missile launches of hypersonic and short range ballistic missiles from North Korea, I doubt that there's much public support in the U.S. for moving forward with an end-of-war declaration or other initiatives to get North Korea to return to negotiations," DeTrani said.

Since Moon's proposal, South Korean and U.S. diplomats have been meeting frequently to discuss the issue.

"There's considerable disappointment that Pyongyang continues to build nuclear weapons and enhance its ballistic missile capabilities, while the ROK and the U.S. ― and others ― try to convince North Korea to return to negotiations," DeTrani added.

The ROK refers to the Republic of Korea, South Korea's official name.

Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King's College London, also said that it would be difficult for President Moon's peace initiative to be successful at this point.

"This would probably need meetings with North Korea for discussion. But Pyongyang continues to be unwilling to let people in or to fly its own diplomats out due to the pandemic. This makes negotiations very difficult for the time being," he added.

In fact, North Korea has remained unresponsive to South Korea's overture.

When North Korea's state-run Korean Central News Agency announced that the country decided to consider resuming nuclear or ICBM tests, it was mainly focused on criticizing the United States for its hostile actions against Pyongyang.

However, it failed to refer to South Korea, raising speculation that the Kim Jong-un regime thinks that there is nothing to achieve with the Moon administration and is waiting for the next South Korean government.

"There is little likelihood North Korea will do much with an administration that will be out of office soon," Roehrig said.

President Moon Jae-in attends a Cabinet meeting at Cheong Wa Dae, Jan. 4. Korea Times photo

Daniel Sneider, a lecturer on international policy at Stanford University, also said, "I also guess that the North Korean leadership has its eyes on the South Korean elections and would not want to do something that undermines the chances of a progressive victory."

He added: "That said, I don't see any prospect for an end of war declaration ― which in any case has no meaning ― or any other last minute North-South initiative. Everyone is waiting for the election results."

Even though North Korea has threatened to resume nuclear or ICBM tests, experts believe that it would not be easy to put the plan into practice due to China which does not want an escalation of tensions in the region.

"China is privately cautioning Kim Jong-un to refrain from having another nuclear test or ICBM launch, knowing this will incite the U.S. and the U.N. Security Council to impose even harsher sanctions," DeTrani said.

"If the North complies, I think China will continue to provide humanitarian and other assistance to North Korea, regardless of United Nations sanctions. I think, at least for the foreseeable future, North Korea will heed this advice and continue to perfect their arsenal of missiles, to include hypersonic and cruise missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, in line with Kim Jong-un's pronouncement at the Eighth Congress of the Workers Party in January 2021."

Sneider also said, "One big question is what the Chinese want to happen at this point. The resumption of trade between North Korea and China is a major development and will give Beijing even more leverage over Pyongyang. I assume that for now the Chinese, with the Winter Olympics coming, are not interested in a major escalation of tensions and will restrain the North Koreans to some extent."

Roehrig also said China will not be happy with a nuclear or ICBM test.

"Particularly if any test comes soon and overshadows the upcoming Olympics. But also in the long-term, Beijing wants regional stability and a return to the tensions of 2016 and 2017 is not what it wants," he added.

When it comes to a possible nuclear test, Pacheco Pardo said North Korea was less likely to detonate a nuclear bomb.

"As for nuclear tests, I think that North Korea is less likely to conduct one because it has declared itself a nuclear power and wants to project the image of being a responsible one," he said.

"'Responsible nuclear powers' don't need to conduct nuclear tests."