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Park Jin, center, three-term lawmaker who headed the National Assembly's foreign affairs and unification committee and now chairman of the Korean-American Association, poses with a group of The Korea Times' columnists ― from left, Andrew Salmon; Casey Lartigue Jr.; Michael Breen and Chief Editorial Writer Oh Young-jin before starting the roundtable discussion on how to best handle the North Korea challenge at the Times in downtown Seoul, last week. Don Kirk, also a Times' columnist later joined the discussion as well. / Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk |
By Park Jin
It is clear that the advent of the Trump administration will have a substantial impact on Asia and the Korean peninsula. Above all, Washington's perceived new pro-Russia and anti-China policies will introduce a geopolitical shift in Asia.
President Trump's "America First" foreign policy is likely to push for increased defense burden sharing from its allies in Asia, including Korea and Japan, as well as causing trade conflicts with China. Plus, protectionist policies to keep US jobs will also call for a review of free trade agreements with countries such as Korea.
While the US and China are anticipating tough negotiations in the areas of trade, currency and geopolitical issues, North Korea's security threats are becoming an urgent policy priority for the Trump administration.
Under the Kim Jong-un regime, North Korea conducted two nuclear tests and test-fired around 30 missiles in 2016, and in addition to testing a game-changing Intermediate-range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) propelled by solid fuel in February, the regime is now suspected of assassinating Kim Jong-nam, Kim Jong-un's estranged half-brother using a highly toxic VX nerve agent in Kuala Lumpur International Airport last month.
President Trump has already warned that he would take a tough stance towards North Korea's growing nuclear missile capabilities, describing them as "very dangerous and very unacceptable." North Korea's belligerent Kim Jong-un regime claims that preparations for launching an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) have reached the final stages. Under these circumstances, the Trump administration appears to be willing to discard the Obama administration's passive "strategic patience" policy towards North Korea in favor of a hard-line policy. If there is no change in North Korea's attitude, an already strained North Korea-U.S. relationship is further expected to stagnate under the Trump administration.
Currently, the Trump administration's North Korea policy is under review in Washington. One can imagine that President Trump will consider various policy options including increased sanctions and pressure on the one hand, and dialogue and negotiation on the other to deal with North Korea's blatant security threats. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson mentioned during his confirmation hearing in Congress that "the United States should keep all options on the table, from the threat of military force to the willingness to remain open to diplomacy" regarding North Korea.
Initially, President Trump could choose to embolden sanctions by ousting North Korea from global financial networks in cooperation with South Korea and Japan, and strengthen the U.S. military posture in and around the Korean peninsula and the Western Pacific to pressure Pyongyang to halt its ambitious nuclear and missile programs. The Trump administration may force North Korea to choose between nuclear weapons or regime survival.
The hurried visit by the Secretary of Defense James Mattis to Korea upon his taking office testifies to the Trump government's strong commitment to Korean security and a determination to take a tough stance towards the North. In Seoul Secretary Mattis promised an "effective and overwhelming" response to any use of nuclear weapons in his firm remarks aimed at North Korea.
President Trump will also attempt to exert added pressure on China, such as imposing secondary sanctions on Chinese companies dealing with North Korea, to persuade Pyongyang to refrain from its increasingly aggressive behavior. In theory, a preemptive strike against North Korea's strategic assets is an available military option in the case of an imminent attack on U.S. territory. In practice, however, it is an extremely risky option because the North's counterattack would cause tremendous casualties and destruction in South Korea and also Japan.
Alternatively, the Trump administration could explore to open a dialogue with North Korea as well as maintaining sanctions on Pyongyang. President Trump is obviously upset with North Korea's hostile brinkmanship, but he indicated that he would "never say no" to dialogue with Kim Jong-un. President Trump is a renowned negotiator and skillful deal maker in business and this pragmatic approach could be applied to North Korea in the form of a "grand bargain" through carefully negotiated gives and takes. The minimum requirements for such a serious dialogue with North Korea would be Pyongyang's expressed willingness to stop its provocations, and a voluntary freeze on its nuclear and missile programs. But for now, North Korea would ask for its de facto nuclear state status in exchange for freezing nuclear development, which is why a dialogue between North Korea and the United States seems unlikely. In any case, there is no question that North Korea's nuclear missile issue poses a most direct and imminent security challenge that the Korea-U.S. alliance has to tackle urgently with a combined resolve and close policy coordination despite the ongoing leadership crisis in Seoul.
Park Jin served three terms as National Assembly lawmaker and led the National Assembly foreign affairs and unification committee. He now works as chairman of the Korean-American Association.
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