[INTERVIEW] Seoul needs to fine-tune strategies for China, Russia amid 'New Cold War' concerns

In this pool photo distributed by Sputnik News, Russian President Vladimir Putin, center left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center right, visit the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the far eastern Amur region of Russia on Wednesday. AFP-Yonhap

Former South Korean Ambassador to Russia Wi Sung-lac encourages Yoon to leave room for cooperation with Russia, China, while deepening ties with US, Japan

By Kang Hyun-kyung

The summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia's Far eastern region of Amur has raised a red flag on regional security.

Few details were made public about the Putin-Kim summit, except their eagerness to deepen defense ties as revealed in their opening statements, the fact that Kim's itinerary was packed with visits to military-related sites and remarks Putin made about the summit's agenda.

Officials in the U.S. and South Korea said that North Korea and Russia were likely to have reached an arms deal during the hours-long closed-door summit, because it took place as Russia continues to grapple with a shortage of artillery shells in its war against Ukraine.

"If Russia and North Korea signed a weapons deal and the North agreed to provide artillery shells and munition as widely speculated, then Russia will do the same for the North in case a contingency occurs on the Korean Peninsula," Wi Sung-lac, South Korea's former ambassador to Russia, told The Korea Times during an interview on Wednesday.

It remains unknown what the quid pro quo for North Korea was.

Observing how quickly Kim and Putin fortified their partnership, Wi voiced worries about South Korea's lack of a grand strategy, which could guide policymakers to search for an optimal diplomatic course of action through which they can explore all possible resources to realize South Korea's interests.

He said that President Yoon Suk Yeol is moving in the right direction concerning trilateral cooperation with the United States and Japan, but also pointed out that South Korea appears to be ill prepared for the three-way collaboration in the making between China, Russia and North Korea.

"South Korea has been zigzagging between the U.S. and China, depending on the administration. This is because Seoul has no foreign policy strategy to deal with them. Under this condition, South Korea will be seen as a country vulnerable to coercion," he said.

Wi Sung-lac, right on the screen, former South Korean ambassador to Russia, is seen at the Korea Times forum held in Seoul on Oct. 26 of last year. Also seen on the screen is Joseph DeTrani, former U.S. chief negotiator to the six-party talks that aimed to end North Korea's nuclear program. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul

Wi used the analogy of a clock to identify South Korea's relative diplomatic distance between the U.S. on one side and China and Russia on the other.

"Let's suppose that the U.S. is 3 o'clock and China and Russia are 9 o'clock as the two sides are poles apart on the security front, and the two sides are trying to pull South Korea closer to their position," he said.

The more South Korea nears 3 o'clock, the closer the country is to the U.S. This direction also shows that South Korea is growing further apart from China and Russia and does nothing to mend ties with them.

"For the past decades, South Korea has shown inconsistent records. Once, it was at 9 o'clock, but after a certain period of time, the country found itself near 3 o'clock," he said. "South Korea is one of the world's top 10 economies, but there are no other top 10 countries that go back and forth between the two opposing sides in such a dramatic way."

Contrary to South Korea, the former envoy said countries like Japan and Australia have been steady and consistent in the diplomatic policies.

"From my standpoint, Japan looks like 2 o'clock and Australia 2:30 and they have been there without fluctuating," he said.

He said South Korea needs a diplomatic roadmap that sets out the nation's goals, as well as diplomatic tactics to deal with the U.S., Japan, China and Russia.

Just like countries in the Asia-Pacific region dealing with China, Wi said Russia is the European equivalent of China as it poses the greatest security challenge to European countries.

"European countries have their own strategies and act based on them," he said.

According to him, the United Kingdom, for example, is tougher on Russia than any other country in the region.

"Germany and France also have their own principled strategies. Each of them is different because the circumstances those countries face are different. Germany's relations with Russia are comparable to South Korea-China relations as they are crucial trading partners, but at the same time they are pitted against each other on the security front," he said. "But none of these countries are zigzagging or going back and forth in their foreign policy postures when dealing with the U.S. and Russia."

Wi called for an integrated and coordinated foreign policy strategy that can help South Korea survive the tougher diplomatic landscape where U.S.-led democratic countries are pitted against the major three autocratic countries ― China, Russia and North Korea.

"There should have been a heated debate to draw a consensus from the Korean public about what to do with those countries in the nation's foreign policy strategy and such an effort should have continued at least for the past 15 years or so. Unfortunately, however, there was no such effort," he said, expressing regret over the lack of constructive discourse.

Wi said summit diplomacy without a strategy or policy direction becomes nothing more than a string of one-off events.

He likened summit diplomacy to a pre-programmed digital device.

"Summit talks are just hardware. That hardware will be working only when pre-programmed software is put in place inside the device. Policy and strategy are two key components of the software that make the hardware work," he said.

North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un, left, and Russia's President Vladimir Putin attend a meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia's far eastern Amur region, Wednesday. Reuters-Yonhap

Wi went back to the clock analogy to underscore what should be included in the strategy.

"Personally, I believe it will be best if South Korea moves a little bit back toward China and Russia, so the nation stands at around 1:30. In this direction, all other nations, including China and Russia, would know South Korea is an ally of the United States, but the country still has room for cooperation with China and Russia to discuss issues such as North Korea toward their mutual interest," he said.

The Camp David summit held in August was the defining moment that proclaimed South Korea's policy direction amid a Cold War-like confrontation in the making after Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year.

The historic summit has been praised as a diplomatic milestone that opened a new era for trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan. The leaders of the three countries agreed to meet regularly for trilateral summits and deepen ties in defense and several other areas.

"I agree with what others said about the summit. The Camp David summit opened a new era for trilateral cooperation of the countries," Wi said.

"But what was not addressed properly is that another era of confrontation also began and South Korea, the U.S. and Japan will see growing security threats from China, Russia and North Korea."

He said "doing nothing" with China, Russia or both is not an option for South Korea, because there are issues where South Korea should work together with them to achieve Seoul's diplomatic goals.

"Issues like the denuclearization of North Korea, peace and unification of the Korean Peninsula cannot progress if we cut ourselves off from China and Russia because they are stakeholders and they have roles to play," he said.