Brazil brings end to Bolsonaro era

By Andrew Hammond

Brazil's vote on Sunday to end the controversial Bolsonaro era was close and divisive, but the nation now has a huge opportunity to unite and rebrand itself to the global community under President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

After the controversies of the last few years, the very tight election result offers Brazil, as a nation, the opportunity to unify itself again, restore international trust and enter a new political epoch. For Brazil is badly in need of a brand makeover and the 2022 elections could enable this given a growing sense that Lula could begin the path toward rebuilding Brazil's damaged democratic institutions.

Lula has highlighted a key goal to forge a vision of Brazil to the world again as a modern, vibrant democracy and stable emerging market that is a prime destination for future investment and tourism. He has also, therefore, asserted that Brazil "can be a great country" after a troubled time of economic challenges, the health emergency of the pandemic, and political turmoil to boot.

During his leadership, President Jair Bolsonaro ― sometimes known as the Tropical Trump ― has been a key part of the populism phenomenon sweeping the world in recent years. Former aide to Donald Trump, Steve Bannon, said that Bolsonaro has been "a great hero for all of us…as someone that has stood for sovereignty and really grassroots." Both Trump and Bolsonaro campaigned and governed as outsiders, promoting a nationalist and anti-globalist agenda.

While populism in South America tends to be of the left-of-center in variety, what has been unusual about Bolsonaro's period of rule is that he has been stridently right-wing. He brought in policies that have shocked global opinion such as the intensification of deforestation in the Amazon.

Moreover, he has attacked democratic institutions, including the Supreme Court when it acted to curb his most anti-democratic moves. Moreover, he filled multiple key cabinet positions with retired and active-duty generals and has appealed to his most vocal supporters to help him bring to power an overtly authoritarian government in which he could rule unrestrained by the law or other branches of power.

Since winning power in 2018, Bolsonaro has repeated accusations of electoral fraud without any evidence. Brazil has had electronic voting machines since 1996, and no systematic fraud has ever been recorded.

The difficult situation that Brazil now finds itself in, after the Bolsonaro presidency, represents a dramatic change from the country of a decade ago when it was seen as an emerging democracy rising in global importance. Then, extreme poverty had been reduced through innovative welfare programs and the nation's diplomatic influence expanded across the world, including via membership in the BRICS. By 2014, however, amidst the impact of the global financial crisis, right-wing populism began gaining ground in Brazil.

Two major questions arise from the potential pivot point that Brazil now finds itself in. Firstly, can a country's reputation be enhanced in the same way as a corporate (or other organizations) might do? And, secondly, can this have a significant, sustainable national, social and economic impact?

On the first issue, competition for the attention of stakeholders like investors and tourists is intensifying, and national reputation can therefore be a prized asset or a big liability, with a direct effect on future political, economic and social fortunes. Boosting a country's reputation is therefore an ever-common ambition in what is an overcrowded global information marketplace, and a number of countries have successfully used key elections to rejuvenate themselves, including Spain after its transition to democracy after the Franco dictatorship.

Yet, the simple fact is that many nations fail to fully capitalize, reputationally or economically, upon such major political moments.

To maximize prospects of Brazil benefiting, in the midst of the country's current malaise, it must pursue a concerted reputational and economic strategy that aligns all key national stakeholders (across the public, private and third sectors) around a single, coherent vision for its country brand. This exercise should not just be the preserve of the government but must involve the private and third sectors too.

A key part of this must be connecting the end of Bolsonaro's rule to a wider story that showcases Brazil's strengths so as to increase the favorability of international perceptions of the country, politically, economically and socially. Major positives here include the fact that the country is a vibrant, diverse, multicultural state that has the potential to kick off its longstanding tag as a sleeping giant to become a regional superpower fueled by its status as one of the world's largest countries by area and population.

Lula and other Brazilian decision-makers would do well to act on this fast as they seek to capitalize upon the opportunities on the horizon. In the midst of the hurly-burly of the post-election period, the long-term opportunities of the election should not be sidelined. For, in the midst of its current troubles, Brazil now has a significant opportunity to use this latest democratic moment for a positive brand makeover that could produce a lasting legacy.

Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.