Why 2023 will shape decade ahead

By Andrew Hammond

The year 2022 was a big political 12 months, including November's U.S. mid-term congressional ballots. Yet 2023 will be a huge election year too, and markets are already looking ahead to a wide range of eye-catching ballots in middle-power countries right across the world from Turkey to Thailand, and Poland to Pakistan.

Middle powers are states, like Australia and Argentina, plus Italy and Indonesia, that are not great powers like the United States, but still have significant influence and international recognition. In the next 12 months there are a wide range of pivotal elections in such nations which markets are watching closely.

Take the example of the Asia-Pacific region which hosts a number of much-anticipated elections, including the Bangladeshi national ballots, the Thai general election and the Pakistani national ballots. There is also the Myanmar general election and the Cambodian national ballots.

In Pakistan, former Prime Minister Imran Khan is currently attempting a high-stakes bid to force the government to hold elections earlier than planned. Khan's move threatens to plunge Pakistan, with its population of around 230 million and already struggling with financial crisis, even deeper into political turmoil, and comes at the end of a tumultuous time for Khan who was ousted as prime minister in April and injured in a shooting in November.

In Myanmar, meanwhile, this year's ballot will be the first since the 2021 coup d'etat displaced democratically elected members of the country's then-ruling party, the National League for Democracy, including then-President Win Myint. Since then, the military has ruled the approximately 55 million population country under a state of emergency, which has been set by Acting President Myint Swe for a maximum duration of two years.

While significant political change could therefore be on the horizon in Myanmar, that scenario appears less likely in Cambodia with its almost 18 million population. There, longstanding leader Hun Sen, who has been prime minister in Cambodia, and its predecessor states, for almost four decades, is believed to want another term of office.

Meanwhile, in approximately 70 million population Thailand, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha is to seek another term in 2023 leading the newly created United Thai Nation Party. Prayut came to power as army chief in a 2014 coup before cementing his position in a controversial 2019 election, but his popularity has been in the doldrums.

Another leader who appears to want a new mandate is Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina as she seeks further ballot success for the Awami League in the approximately 165 million population country. While Hasina has won widespread plaudits, internationally, for resettling hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, her government has been criticized for what is perceived as increasingly authoritarian rule.

One other reason that the eyes of much of the world will be on Asia-Pacific, politically, is India's hosting of the G-20. The timing of that, ahead of India's general elections in 2024, could help bolster Prime Minister Narendra Modi's growing reputation in his more than billion population nation as a leader of international stature.

Yet, it is not just Asia-Pacific where the political action is in 2023. One other standout election is in Turkey, with its almost 85 million-strong population, which sees elections which could herald the end of the two-decade long 'Erdogan era' which began in 2003 with Recep Erdogan's election as prime minister before he assumed the presidency.

Other key ballots in 2023 include the Nigerian general election and the national ballots in Spain and Poland. In Nigeria, which with its almost 220 million population is widely known as the 'Giant of Africa,' incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari is term-limited and cannot seek re-election.

In Spain, the EU's fourth-largest economy and a key G-20 state with a population of around 50 million, Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is seeking a new term. However, he faces a strong challenge from a rejuvenated right-of-center People's Party keen to get back into power.

Meanwhile, the ballot in Poland will be shaped by the ongoing war in Ukraine. One of the other noteworthy features of this election, in the almost 40 million population country, is the attempted return to the parliament of former President of the European Council Donald Tusk who, before his assumption of that top job in Brussels, served as Polish prime minister.

Turning to the Americas, the standout election is the presidential ballot in Argentina which will also see members of the national legislature up for election too. President Alberto Fernandez is eligible for a second term, but his popularity has fallen away and his ruling coalition was badly defeated in the midterm legislative ballot in the nation of around 45 million.

The exact outcome of none of these high-profile ballots is yet 100 percent clear-cut. However, what is certain is that they will shape not just domestic politics and international relations, but also the global economic and financial landscape well into the 2020s, and potentially beyond.

Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.