By Andrew Hammond
With Germany's 2022 presidency of the Group of Seven (G7) beginning in January, the three political parties negotiating a new coalition in Berlin will begin formal talks ― sooner than expected ― to try to take up the reins of power before year end.
Germany's hosting of the G7 is not the only big, upcoming international event that is putting urgency into the coalition negotiations with this autumn also seeing the G20 and the Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP 26). While a new coalition is unlikely before those summits, which Angela Merkel is likely to attend in her role as caretaker chancellor, her expected replacement Olaf Scholz wants to try to ensure he is in power to kick off his nation's big G7 year.
The anticipated new "traffic light" coalition led by the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) in combination with the pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the Green Party will see potentially important policy changes on the horizon. While many see the main contribution of the Greens, who placed third in last month's election, to be on sustainability or Environment, Social Governance (ESG) issues, it could be other issues such as China where it has unexpected impact.
This is because this year's election indicated that there is a relative political consensus among the key parties over topics like global warming. However, there is a sharper divergence over China ahead of next year's 50th anniversary of bilateral ties, compared to the Merkel era, which could see a more conflictual policy, including over human rights and Xinjiang.
The Greens advocate a more strongly "human-rights centric" approach to Beijing with one of the party's MEP's, Reinhard Butikofer, asserting recently that "Germany's unbalanced China policy is heavily skewed toward the interests of a few multinational corporations at the expense of other sectors of our economy, and certainly at the expense of our values and security concerns."
The closeness of Beijing and Berlin the last decade and a half was underlined by Chinese President Xi Jinping when he held a video conference with Merkel. He said she has always been a friend of the Chinese people and welcomed her to visit the country after leaving office.
Beijing regards Merkel as a stabilizing ally who helped counteract the growing number of U.S. and European politicians, including former President Donald Trump, calling for decoupling from China. In recent months, for instance, the German chancellor has pushed hard for an EU investment deal with Beijing, which was sealed last year, and spoke out against the idea that democracies should unite to isolate Beijing diplomatically.
Thanks in part to the strong economic relationship between Germany and China, Berlin has traditionally been un-confrontational to Beijing on human rights abuses.
In the years preceding Merkel's ascension to power in 2005, China joined the World Trade Organization and German firms, many of which began setting up operations in China in the 1970s, profited big timer. Since 2015, China has been Germany's largest trading partner with the pair exchanging goods worth more than 250 billion dollars in 2020.
Yet, Merkel's "change through trade" strategy has fewer remaining supporters. Under Xi, China's economy remains under tight state control, and alleged human rights abuses against Uighurs in Xinjiang and political dissidents have received more attention.
China aside, one of the broader concerns held by many about Germany's foreign policy in the potential new coalition of three ― rather than two ― parties is that policy direction will be more contested.
This underlines that, ultimately, Germany's political flux is not just a domestic issue, but one that also matters deeply for Europe, and indeed the world at large too. Historically, many Germans have been generally content with their post-Cold War lot, seeing themselves as beneficiaries of globalization but this may be changing as shown by the rise of smaller parties with, for instance, the Greens topping national polls for the first time ever earlier this year.
Looking forward, the nation's multiparty system future may therefore now mean that politics is generally more unstable and less predictable with even greater challenge each election cycle to establish a governing coalition. So there may be more rotating coalitions with problems this can bring, including potential paralysis and the prospect of the chancellorship becoming weaker, a challenge Scholtz may soon have to contend with if he replaces Merkel.
This underlines the historical crossroads the nation is now at. While a multiparty system could have some positives, the political danger is a potentially weaker Germany and Europe at a time of growing global geopolitical flux and economic uncertainty in the 2020s.
Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
 |
Germany's hosting of the G7 is not the only big, upcoming international event that is putting urgency into the coalition negotiations with this autumn also seeing the G20 and the Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP 26). While a new coalition is unlikely before those summits, which Angela Merkel is likely to attend in her role as caretaker chancellor, her expected replacement Olaf Scholz wants to try to ensure he is in power to kick off his nation's big G7 year.
The anticipated new "traffic light" coalition led by the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) in combination with the pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the Green Party will see potentially important policy changes on the horizon. While many see the main contribution of the Greens, who placed third in last month's election, to be on sustainability or Environment, Social Governance (ESG) issues, it could be other issues such as China where it has unexpected impact.
This is because this year's election indicated that there is a relative political consensus among the key parties over topics like global warming. However, there is a sharper divergence over China ahead of next year's 50th anniversary of bilateral ties, compared to the Merkel era, which could see a more conflictual policy, including over human rights and Xinjiang.
The Greens advocate a more strongly "human-rights centric" approach to Beijing with one of the party's MEP's, Reinhard Butikofer, asserting recently that "Germany's unbalanced China policy is heavily skewed toward the interests of a few multinational corporations at the expense of other sectors of our economy, and certainly at the expense of our values and security concerns."
The closeness of Beijing and Berlin the last decade and a half was underlined by Chinese President Xi Jinping when he held a video conference with Merkel. He said she has always been a friend of the Chinese people and welcomed her to visit the country after leaving office.
Beijing regards Merkel as a stabilizing ally who helped counteract the growing number of U.S. and European politicians, including former President Donald Trump, calling for decoupling from China. In recent months, for instance, the German chancellor has pushed hard for an EU investment deal with Beijing, which was sealed last year, and spoke out against the idea that democracies should unite to isolate Beijing diplomatically.
Thanks in part to the strong economic relationship between Germany and China, Berlin has traditionally been un-confrontational to Beijing on human rights abuses.
In the years preceding Merkel's ascension to power in 2005, China joined the World Trade Organization and German firms, many of which began setting up operations in China in the 1970s, profited big timer. Since 2015, China has been Germany's largest trading partner with the pair exchanging goods worth more than 250 billion dollars in 2020.
Yet, Merkel's "change through trade" strategy has fewer remaining supporters. Under Xi, China's economy remains under tight state control, and alleged human rights abuses against Uighurs in Xinjiang and political dissidents have received more attention.
China aside, one of the broader concerns held by many about Germany's foreign policy in the potential new coalition of three ― rather than two ― parties is that policy direction will be more contested.
This underlines that, ultimately, Germany's political flux is not just a domestic issue, but one that also matters deeply for Europe, and indeed the world at large too. Historically, many Germans have been generally content with their post-Cold War lot, seeing themselves as beneficiaries of globalization but this may be changing as shown by the rise of smaller parties with, for instance, the Greens topping national polls for the first time ever earlier this year.
Looking forward, the nation's multiparty system future may therefore now mean that politics is generally more unstable and less predictable with even greater challenge each election cycle to establish a governing coalition. So there may be more rotating coalitions with problems this can bring, including potential paralysis and the prospect of the chancellorship becoming weaker, a challenge Scholtz may soon have to contend with if he replaces Merkel.
This underlines the historical crossroads the nation is now at. While a multiparty system could have some positives, the political danger is a potentially weaker Germany and Europe at a time of growing global geopolitical flux and economic uncertainty in the 2020s.
Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
![[INTERVIEW] 'One Day Off' star Lee Na-young, director on creating subtle, feel-good series](https://img.koreatimes.co.kr/upload/thumbnailV2/796618f56a44402eabe81fe4530ab988.jpg/dims/resize/178/optimize)
![[INTERVIEW] Lee Jun-hyuk unrecognizable in 'The Roundup: No Way Out'](https://img.koreatimes.co.kr/upload/thumbnailV2/77a9da6df7da4284adbee249a87307c1.jpg/dims/resize/178/optimize)
