By Andrew Hammond
The year 2021 saw big ballots, including in Germany and Israel that resulted in long-standing leaders leaving power. However, the election landscape is even bigger in 2022 with eye-catching votes across every continent, which will shape not just domestic politics and economics, but also international relations well into the 2020s.
In Europe, the standout is the French presidential election. While incumbent Emmanuel Macron is the favorite, a recent poll by the Elabe group showed for the first time that he could lose the second-round run-off in April to Valerie Pecresse from the right-of-center Republicans Party.
Pecresse, a combative former minister under ex-President Nicolas Sarkozy, has enjoyed a big bounce in the polls since winning her party's nomination on Dec. 4. In the campaign, she is highlighting several key international issues, including migration, to peel off support from far-right rivals Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour.
Pecresse is calling for a "European awakening," proposing a tightening of the Schengen free movement area. She also wants to bolster the returns directive on expulsion rules for illegal immigrants in the EU and end EU enlargement ― including by terminating accession talks with Turkey.
Macron, as a political centrist, is aware of the risks he faces if the election swings on migration issues and wants instead to focus on economic priorities, like reshaping the European single market and protecting European jobs. In his own words, "we must have one obsession in 2022 ― it is to create jobs and fight unemployment," and he plans to use the French presidency of the EU in the first half of 2022 to promote this agenda.
In Asia-Pacific, the big one may be the Australian general election on or before May 21 that will see Prime Minister Scott Morrison trying to secure a fourth consecutive term for the Liberal-National Coalition Government. While the opposition Labour Party has generally led polls in 2021, Morrison is still widely seen as the preferred person to be prime minister, and the result is therefore highly uncertain in the midst of the continuing pandemic.
To continue to hold a majority, Morrison's government cannot afford to lose a single seat, and for Labour to win a majority, it will need to pick up seven. This will be challenging for both sides, as the former holds two seats with margins of less than 1 percent, and Labour has five in that precarious position.
One key international issue in the campaign is China where Morrison is seeking to paint Labour as soft on Beijing, after one of the party's former prime ministers Paul Keating claimed recently that Australia has "lost its way" and surrendered its sovereignty to the United States under the AUKUS nuclear deal announced with the United Kingdom. To be sure, current Labour leader Anthony Albanese has backed AUKUS, but that hasn't stopped the government claiming too many in his party are 'apologists' for China and weak on national security, with Labour punching back that Morrison is heightening rhetoric for domestic political purposes after failing to forge a proper strategy for engaging an increasingly assertive Beijing.
Turning to the Americas, the two eye-catching ballots are in Brazil and the United States. In Brazil, polls indicate that former leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva may beat incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in a landslide. Important as that outcome would be domestically, it would have key implications internationally too.
As president, Lula promoted Brazil as a progressive champion of the developing world and leader on environmental issues which would make a very welcome, dramatic departure from Bolsonaro's record. One tangible change would be climate diplomacy, given that Bolsonaro refused to attend COP26 in Glasgow last month, previously indicated he wanted to quit the Paris climate treaty and has allowed a big increase in Amazon deforestation.
In the United States, foreign policy issues may not feature prominently in the mid-term congressional elections. Nonetheless, the ballot is likely still to have several key international implications if Republicans win back one or both chambers of Congress.
If this scenario does unfold in 2022, it will see Biden like several other recent presidents increasingly turning to foreign policy after their initial period in office. This is because presidents have more latitude to act, independently of Congress, in international affairs than domestic policy, and the political legacy they are keen to build usually includes a desire for key overseas accomplishments.
While the congressional ballot may therefore significantly reshape the domestic context for Biden's presidency, potential changes of leadership in several other pivotal powers, from Australia to France and Brazil, will alter the landscape for U.S. foreign policy during his remaining period of office. He would welcome Bolsonaro losing power, but miss Macron's internationalism, highlighting that the 2022 election season contains both key risks and opportunities for him.
Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
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In Europe, the standout is the French presidential election. While incumbent Emmanuel Macron is the favorite, a recent poll by the Elabe group showed for the first time that he could lose the second-round run-off in April to Valerie Pecresse from the right-of-center Republicans Party.
Pecresse, a combative former minister under ex-President Nicolas Sarkozy, has enjoyed a big bounce in the polls since winning her party's nomination on Dec. 4. In the campaign, she is highlighting several key international issues, including migration, to peel off support from far-right rivals Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour.
Pecresse is calling for a "European awakening," proposing a tightening of the Schengen free movement area. She also wants to bolster the returns directive on expulsion rules for illegal immigrants in the EU and end EU enlargement ― including by terminating accession talks with Turkey.
Macron, as a political centrist, is aware of the risks he faces if the election swings on migration issues and wants instead to focus on economic priorities, like reshaping the European single market and protecting European jobs. In his own words, "we must have one obsession in 2022 ― it is to create jobs and fight unemployment," and he plans to use the French presidency of the EU in the first half of 2022 to promote this agenda.
In Asia-Pacific, the big one may be the Australian general election on or before May 21 that will see Prime Minister Scott Morrison trying to secure a fourth consecutive term for the Liberal-National Coalition Government. While the opposition Labour Party has generally led polls in 2021, Morrison is still widely seen as the preferred person to be prime minister, and the result is therefore highly uncertain in the midst of the continuing pandemic.
To continue to hold a majority, Morrison's government cannot afford to lose a single seat, and for Labour to win a majority, it will need to pick up seven. This will be challenging for both sides, as the former holds two seats with margins of less than 1 percent, and Labour has five in that precarious position.
One key international issue in the campaign is China where Morrison is seeking to paint Labour as soft on Beijing, after one of the party's former prime ministers Paul Keating claimed recently that Australia has "lost its way" and surrendered its sovereignty to the United States under the AUKUS nuclear deal announced with the United Kingdom. To be sure, current Labour leader Anthony Albanese has backed AUKUS, but that hasn't stopped the government claiming too many in his party are 'apologists' for China and weak on national security, with Labour punching back that Morrison is heightening rhetoric for domestic political purposes after failing to forge a proper strategy for engaging an increasingly assertive Beijing.
Turning to the Americas, the two eye-catching ballots are in Brazil and the United States. In Brazil, polls indicate that former leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva may beat incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in a landslide. Important as that outcome would be domestically, it would have key implications internationally too.
As president, Lula promoted Brazil as a progressive champion of the developing world and leader on environmental issues which would make a very welcome, dramatic departure from Bolsonaro's record. One tangible change would be climate diplomacy, given that Bolsonaro refused to attend COP26 in Glasgow last month, previously indicated he wanted to quit the Paris climate treaty and has allowed a big increase in Amazon deforestation.
In the United States, foreign policy issues may not feature prominently in the mid-term congressional elections. Nonetheless, the ballot is likely still to have several key international implications if Republicans win back one or both chambers of Congress.
If this scenario does unfold in 2022, it will see Biden like several other recent presidents increasingly turning to foreign policy after their initial period in office. This is because presidents have more latitude to act, independently of Congress, in international affairs than domestic policy, and the political legacy they are keen to build usually includes a desire for key overseas accomplishments.
While the congressional ballot may therefore significantly reshape the domestic context for Biden's presidency, potential changes of leadership in several other pivotal powers, from Australia to France and Brazil, will alter the landscape for U.S. foreign policy during his remaining period of office. He would welcome Bolsonaro losing power, but miss Macron's internationalism, highlighting that the 2022 election season contains both key risks and opportunities for him.
Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
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