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By Andrew Hammond
In the build-up to this week's G7 summit, a wide range of issues from climate change to the world economy have been discussed by Western ministers. However, the overriding issue to be discussed in Hiroshima from May 19-21 is Ukraine and its ongoing ramifications.
It is now the largest part of 500 days since Russia's invasion, and there is no obvious sign that the conflict will be over soon. Yet, what is much clearer is the galvanizing impact it has had on the West, including the G7.
While Joe Biden is still widely criticized, it is his presidency that has helped rebuild and renew the transatlantic and wider Western alliance. Plus it highlights the areas in which international cooperation is now most urgently needed.
The Western club's revival as a political and economic force has surprised many, especially after the woes of Donald Trump's presidency. Indeed, for some time it was speculated that the G7 might even cease to exist.
Part of the reason for that is the G7's declining share of the world economy. In the 1970s, the Western club accounted for some 80 percent of world GDP, but that is now nearer 30 percent.
Turn the clock forward to 2023, however, and the unexpectedly unified Western response to Russia's invasion has renewed G7 self-confidence. To be sure, that may yet unravel, including if there are "bumps in the road" from Ukraine.
One of those challenges could be the return of higher energy prices with, for instance, gas prices predicted by Goldman Sachs last Tuesday to nearly treble this coming winter across Europe. Goldman has forecast that prices could rise beyond 100 euros per megawatt hour in the second half of 2023, a threefold increase from the present rate of around 36 euros.
However, for now, at least, there has been a reversal of the years from 2017 to 2021 when a dominant narrative was uncertainty about the enduring purpose of the West. It should be remembered too that while the G7's membership no longer includes all dominant global economies, as in the 1970s, it retains significant strength, and accounted for almost 15 percent of global GDP growth in the period from 2012 to 2022.
Of course, key questions about the future of the West pre-date Trump's election as U.S. president. Moreover, it is not just Trump who highlighted problems with these key alliances as shown by the U.K.'s vote in 2016 to leave the EU.
Yet, there is no question that Trump's presidency intensified worry about the future of the West. Hence, the reason why there has been such urgency for transatlantic partners since then to develop a strategy for a new, unfolding era of great power competition.
The revival of the West as the world's leading political and economic force is far from complete, however, even now. There is significantly more needed to accomplish Biden's goal of seeing the Western community reunify against what he perceives as common challenges from not just Russia, but also China.
One necessary move is for all key parties, including the EU, Canada and Japan, to acknowledge that it may not be possible for the old liberal order to be brought back in exactly the same form as before. Desirable as that may be for many, it is now clearer that going back to the full mosaic of the old rules-based international order may not be realistic, not least given the significant portions of populaces in Western societies that remain supportive of populist leaders such as Trump.
The remaining window offered by Biden's presidency is therefore the right moment to try to address these issues. And it is also the time to explore what a new Western-led approach to global governance looks like.
A prerequisite for enabling these goals is concentrating on the big strategic questions facing the West. While Ukraine is top of the list, there are multiple more beyond this.
An example is the future of international trade, more than a quarter of a century after the creation of the WTO. This system is creaking, and may yet collapse, under the strain of recent sanctions imposed across the globe.
To help address this, and other key questions, there is a need for more of the West and its allies to agree that there are a range of economic, not just military challenges that are better met together. What is now needed is a multi-year dialogue, including forums such as NATO and the G7, imperfect as they are, stepping up to the plate given that they are organizations of powerful, like-minded democracies with shared values.
Some skeptics will say that nothing big will change anytime soon. Yet this may be too pessimistic.
At this latest moment of crisis, 2023 and 2024 might well be decisive years to build the foundations of a renewed West, a project which would be galvanized if Biden wins a second term.
Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
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